The developing El Niño and what it means for SE Queensland

Cheri Porter

June 2026

Warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicate that a strong El Niño is developing and will likely affect weather in our area in late 2026 and into 2027. The current rapid and early warming of the Pacific may indicate a record-breaking Super El Niño later this year.

In general, El Niño events bring drier and warmer weather across northern and eastern Australia, particularly from June to November. While El Niño doesn’t guarantee drought, it shifts the odds toward hotter, drier and more fire-prone conditions.

Nine of the 10 driest winter–spring periods on record for eastern Australia occurred during El Niño years, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). El Niño has been linked to some of the worst droughts in modern history, including the millennium drought between 1997 and 2010.

The BOM's latest long-range forecast for the winter months shows an increased chance of "unusually dry" conditions for parts of south-eastern Australia and south-western Australia. The strongest sign in the outlook is for winter daytime temperatures, which are very likely to be warmer than normal for most of the country outside the tropics.

Climate change is making heatwaves hotter, longer and more frequent. As we continue to produce greenhouse gases our climate worsens and people are more exposed to the dangers of heat. According to the CSIRO and BOM’s 2024 State of the Climate Report, Australia is already living in a ‘new climate’, having warmed 1.51 degrees since 1910. This means we are currently experiencing the impacts of climate change in our own homes, backyards, and communities. This warming will continue as we continue to burn fossil fuels and polluting our atmosphere.

Reminder: Everyday activities become dangerous during heatwaves. Remember to check-in with people who might struggle with heat, such as people over 60, people with disabilities and chronic illness, young children, pregnant people, people who live alone, and those who must work or commute in the heat.